Timing the Market: How To Profit in the Stock Market Using the Yield Curve, Technical Analysis, and Cultural Indicators

It's well established that interest rates significantly impact the stock market. This is the first book that definitively explores the interest rate/stock market relationship and describes a specific system for profiting from the relationship. Timing the Market provides an historically proven system, rooted in fundamental economics, that allows investors and traders to forecast the stock market using data from the interest rate markets-together with supporting market sentiment and cultural indicators-to pinpoint and profit from major turns in the stock market.

Deborah Weir (Greenwich, CT) is President of Wealth Strategies, a firm that does marketing for traditional money managers and hedge funds. She is a Chartered Financial Analyst and is the first woman president of the Stamford CFA Society.

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All Customer Reviews
Average Customer Review:
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful:

Excellent, 2008-01-14
I strongly recommend this book for every investor. It covers all the major market timing techniques and does a great job in explaining them. The book is comprehensive, well organized, and well explained. There is only one chapter that I really hated --chapter 16 which talks about the relation between trends in woman beauty and the market. This chapter should just be removed from the book; luckily it is only 10 pages long!


12 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

POS! Danger -- Don't make the same mistake I made!!, 2007-08-03
I bought this book awhile ago. Studied it. It all sounded so good. And then I tried to recreate the buy/sell signal data.... If you already own the book and are using it to make investment decisions, be sure to try this exercise and answer the question at the end.

Go to Appendix 2.1 on page 333. Let's dig into the sell signal on "2000-08-01" as an example. First of all, as Weir explains in her book on page 15-16, the Treasury data is a monthly average. The Three-Month Bill entry is 6.09. That is an average of the 3-month yields from 8/1/2000 to 8/31/2000 (using the daily rates from H.15 3-month Treasury Bill secondary market rate data). Since that is an average, it is known on 8/31/2000 at the earliest. The same is true for the Ten-Year note and therefore the yield spread. Other than the misleading date name in the table (2000-08-01), so far so good.

Now we have a signal to Sell on 8/31/2000, right? The S&P 500 Index for 8/31/2000 is 1517.68. (Yahoo's daily historical Prices for S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)). The "2000-08-01" entry in the book shows 1430 which is what the S&P 500 Index was for 7/31/2000, a month earlier. The same is true for all the entries in appendix 2.1.

So the question is: how is it that you can buy and sell an index based on signals you won't know until a month later?

What a scam!!


1 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

Great Investment Informtion On Interet Rate Cycles, 2007-06-26
I'm on my second reading and taking notes. This is the book you want if your interested in which market to be invested in and when. Inside information about the way fund managers think and act. Knowing when to be in stocks, bonds or gold is the most important information one can have when putting your money on the line....Deborah Weir's book,Timing the Market: How To Profit in the Stock Market Using the Yield Curve, Technical Analysis, and Cultural Indicators, does just that. My advice after being in the financial markets for over 45 years is...don't invest without this knowledge.




32 of 34 people found the following review helpful:

An overall disappointing effort, 2006-12-29
I approached this book with an inclination to like it. I'm a firm believer in market timing, and I jumped at the chance to learn some new ideas about using the fixed-income markets to time the stock market. I have to say, though, that I came away from Timing the Market frustrated and disappointed. Here's why.

Throughout the book, there is a chart detailing various buys and sells that one supposedly could have made using the author's timing system. However, rather than deriving these buy and sell points systematically, the author seems to arbitrarily choose buy and sell points that would have worked best in retrospect--regardless of whether they fit into a coherent, replicable system or not.

For example, in chapter 7 the author adds buy points to her chart right after the waterfall declines in October 1987, September 1998 and September 2001. What is the rule that guides these choices? Apparently, it is that the Fed lowered the fed funds rate at least one-half of one percent after a crash of some kind. This rule is apparently a sufficient but not a necessary condition of buying because numerous other buy points on her chart don't involve this rule at all. So IF you hadn't already committed funds because of other rules, you MIGHT have been able to buy then.

Later in the book, on the basis of a breadth-based rule about the Dow 30, the author erases the September 2001 buy signal and records a buy signal for her system on July 19, 2002, near the ultimate bottom of the bear market. This is based on the fact that all 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks declined on the same day. I see IN RETROSPECT why she did this, but how would you have known in September 2001 to wait for the later buy signal? The author does not address these kinds of questions at all, as far as I can tell. As I said, frustrating and disappointing.

There may be value in Ms. Weir's concepts, but she has far to go if her aim is to develop a rigorous market timing system, in my opinion.


0 of 8 people found the following review helpful:

EXCELLENT !!! THE BEST INVESTING BOOK I EVER READ., 2006-12-12
THIS BOOK IS GREAT ! NOT ONLY TELLS YOU WHY BUT ALSO GIVE THE FACTS AND SHOW TO YOU HOW YOU CAN READ THE MARKET AS THE PROFESSIONAL MONEY MANAGERS DO IT ALL THE TIME. YOU ALWAYS WANT TO BE IN THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MARKET, THIS BOOK TEACHED ME HOW TO DO IT. THANK YOU DEBORAH !!!

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