by Michael A Alexander
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Product Description
For most Americans, a 401k plan is their first exposure to investing. Many of us are relying on the stock market to provide for us in our retirement yet at the same time, most of us are afraid of the stock market. It's a valid concern. How can something so important to our financial future be so completely unpredictable? When Michael Alexander first started investing in the stock market, he noticed that few analysts seemed to have much knowledge of what the market has done in the past. While no one can give precise answers to questions about the future of the market and be right all the time, Alexander feels that it's possible to gain an understanding of the future of the stock market by studying its past. Analyzing years of historical data for patterns of behavior that might repeat in the future, Alexander provides strong statistical evidence for a cyclical pattern in the stock market. These Stock Cycles show that long periods of poor stock returns have always followed long periods of good returns. Are we in for good times or is the party over?
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Average Customer Review:
1 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
 A Triumph!, 2006-03-13
This book changed my life! This is a must read for everyone whether you invest in the stock market or not. This book displays the kind of economic and literary genius that comes along once in a lifetime. His points are well thought out and clearly articulated. SCWSWBMMOTNTY is a must have. I hope to one day meet the author and discuss this book over a beer.
3 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
Interesting Book, 2005-08-19
Alexander describes his P/R valuation concept to serve as a marker in substitution to P/E, that has (nowadays) jumped to astronomical values, difficulting the overvaluation/undervaluation analysis.
He also describes in this book the concept of Kondratieff Cycles, although he has a posterior book dedicated only to this subject.
The problems with the book:
1) Equations should be typed using an equation editor, that is, the equations are bad typesetted.
2) As a scientist (He holds a Ph.D. degree) he should present the material in a clearer way to facilitate the reprodution of his results. He should include, for example how he choose the parameters of his valuation model (Chapter 4). In the appendix he gives the parameters but it is lacking details supporting his choices and also some parameters. (for example, what the length of the moving average to smooth the economic expansion parameter n ?).
3) Sometimes he uses English when equations are more appropriated (ex: p.96 "inflation rates over successive fifteen year periods were calculated and examined for the 1730-1800 period" How exactly he did the averages? Centered? Trailing? Weighted?)
So that my conclusion is: Very Interesting Research that could be presented in a clearer way.
1 of 3 people found the following review helpful:
A great book!, 2004-08-07
If you are investing long term money without reading this book, then you are doing yourself a big disfavor. This book explains so much about economic cycles and how they coincide with stock cycles. I cannot say enough about this book and why I think everyone should read it.
5 of 6 people found the following review helpful:
Required Reading for All Investors Young and Old, 2003-09-12
I wish I read this book five years ago before the bubble broke, I'd have alot more money now if I did. Alas, hindsight is 20/20. However, this is the first book that presents a very logical and thorough view of investment cycles that are clearly present in our economy. Yes, this book is somewhat tedious as another reviewer commented, but the true nature of the opportunities and risks of investing in the stock market are not something that reads like a vapid tabloid story. The lessons available to be learned and applied from "Stock Cycles" come only from studying, interpreting, questioning and back testing large amounts of data produced from the trading of stocks every day of every month of every year for decades and decades. Michael Alexander has done just that resulting in a work available for the layman to the investment professional from which to benefit. Michael Alexander also challenges the investment industry in that it has massaged much of that data to the detriment of the individual investor, ie.: the mutual fund industry and its "buy and hold" mantra it has been preaching since roughly the beginning of the last bull market in 1982. The mutual fund industry makes its money by maintaining a large asset base from which to generate fee revenue. Sure, "buy and hold" works pretty well in a secular bull market, but there have been many times in the past 200 years where there was little if any growth in stocks and the stock market for an extended number of years. And that number of years may be too long for many investor's investing goals to be achieved. Alexander shows that there is large amount of economic evidence indicating that we may be in just the beginning of one of those stagnant, yet unsettled cycles. Though Alexander's conclusion and recommendations on what to do now are vague, I think the overall message of the book is to invest with extreme caution but taking an active approach to investing, take profits if you have them and minimize losses should they occur and to beware Wall Street saying: "It's different this time", 'cause it's not. A must read.
1 of 15 people found the following review helpful:
 Mind numbing, 2003-06-27
The author goes on and on detailing the past but drew no sound conclusions. Left me wishing he would just make his point. This book was a tedious read.
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