13 of 13 people found the following review helpful:
The Book From Which Policies Should Flow, 2001-12-27
For those who try to understand the conundrum that is Korea, this book is a stiff cold wind, and entirely welcome. Indeed it is a daunting read, full of econometric and logical analyses, but Avoiding the Apocalypse : The Future of the Two Koreas repays careful reading many times over. Aside from the rigorous analysis, however, are the three concluding chapters. The author discusses three alternative paths for North Korea's future, and reaches a conclusion. Not only is the author open-minded, but the prospect for each scenario opens up possible policy implications for all countries involved.
This book also provides useful information on South Korea, even though it is billed as a book on North Korea. In many ways, the author's reflections on Korean history and South Korean development are more useful than the North Korean sections. Before North Korea can be dispassionately analyzed, South Korean success must be analyzed.
I put down this book and reached the conclusion, that the world just may have to live with a North Korea, de-villified, but certainly dangerous, for a long time. South Korea also faces more difficulties than it realizes, and should look at North Korea as an example in negative.
Still, with all the analysis and history, the mystery that is Korea is still there in the shadows. This book does admirably well with figures and facts, but so much is misunderstood. This book does as best as any could with this emotional subject, and, hopefully, will be the basis for thought, not rhetoric.
9 of 10 people found the following review helpful:
Constructive Alternatives, 2001-04-18
During the Cold War, US policymakers focused on security. In the globalized world, the challenge is to integrate economics into the analytical framework. Dr. Marcus Noland has done this with his book "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas." He demonstrates how economics and domestic political concerns have combined to create the odd situation in which the US is building two nuclear reactors for a country with which it fought a war and does not maintain diplomatic relations. Most importantly, he suggests constructive alternatives to this most strange state of affairs. The US and its allies, including South Korea, Japan, and the EU, should consider carefully Noland's proposal for revisiting the Agreed Framework.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful:
President Bush should read this book, 2000-12-28
Winston Churchill described the Soviet Union as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma," but then again, unlike Marcus Noland, Churchill never visited North Korea.
South Korea has risen from the ashes of the war to become a modern country. North Korea faces a famine. (My church and many others are involved in famine relief there.) If the North Koreans opened up their system they could catch up with South Korea -- afterall, they are all Koreans. As it is, they rely on selling missiles to countries like Pakistan, worsening the Pakistani confrontation with India, and creating headaches for the US and other countries.
This book examines this geopolitical hot spot. It analyzes the missile and nuclear issue, the famine, and the financial crisis in South Korea. It then considers three scenarios for the future of the Korean peninsula. The economics can get a bit heavy going, but it is not difficult to follow the thread of the argument. This book is particularly good on the issue of how developments in the North could affect political and economic developments in the South. It would behoove President Bush and his advisors to read this book.
17 of 18 people found the following review helpful:
a superb work on Korea, 2000-12-27
The Korean peninsula faces a complex foreign policy crisis involving the interplay of economic and security issues. "Avoiding the Apocalypse" is magisterial in scope, integrating the economic, political, and security dimensions. The sheer breadth of the book is remarkable. The book covers the development of the South Korean economy and the financial crisis that has rocked the South in the past few years. It offers an insightful look into the workings of the North Korean economy, and how the failings of that economy led to both strategic adventurism and famine. The final third of the book is devoted to an analysis of future scenarios on the peninsula. Noland identifies as most likely a scenario in which the North undertakes ad hoc policy adjustments while supported by engagement with South Korea, China, Japan, and possibly even the United States. While the book is thoroughly researched and referenced, its tone is quite lively and accessible to a broad audience -- at times even drolly humorous. An excellent and important work on Korea.
2 of 17 people found the following review helpful:
TOO IVORY TOWER - Lacks info on real experiences in DPRK, 2000-12-07
Unfortunately the book is based on academic and Washington DC think tank sources opposed to actual research in North Korea. A more useful approach would have been for the book to be based on actual recent research in North Korea as well as other transitioning economies in Asia such as Vietnam, Laos and Mongolia. Access and visas to these countries, as well as to North Korea, can be made in Beijing from which there are easy flights. North Korea is a fascinating country and well worth the visit. It is disappointing that this book, like so many others today, rely on secondary sources instead of direct research. This seems to be a trend among American books from Washington DC. Perhaps in Europe we have different set of standards for our academic research so maybe I am being unfairly critical.