by Patrick Leach
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Product Description
Subtitle: An Executive's Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and to Make Better Decisions. Patrick Leach draws on his extensive consulting and teaching experience to present a compelling, insightful, and understandable case for using probabilistic analysis as part of every day business decision-making. Practical examples and case studies are clearly presented.
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Average Customer Review:
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
Full of Insight, 2008-01-03
This book should be required reading for managers and people that have to deal with managers (did I cover everybody?). Seriously, you can get knowledge out of nearly any book, but it is rare to find practical and implementable wisdom in a book as well written as this one is. Patrick Leach delivers wisdom and insight (and yes, knowledge as well) in every chapter.
I can relate directly to several of the case examples that pepper the book, especially the one about the manager who failed to reward his team for a tremendous success citing the fact that they only found what they said they would find... but the company wanted to be a top 10 percentile performer so the team got nothing. These "strange but true" anecdotes make us laugh and cry at the same time while brilliantly showing the need for decision literacy.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number, 2007-02-09
This is an excellent book and very well written. I purchased this book because I was impressed with Mr. Leach's writing in his papers. All I need now, is to get our senior management team to read this book. The other 5 star reviews on this page are most appropriate.
I'd love to have a beer with Patrick.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
A perfect balance between theory and practical application, 2007-01-09
I've known Mr. Leach for several years now and have seen him in action before a class of business resources as well as facilitating project teams. In both settings a consultant/instructor must be aware of how he is communicating to the audience. Too basic and he will appear simplistic, too theoretical and he will seem academic. Mr. Leach walks this line extremely well. He is entertaining, insightful, and thought-provoking. These same attributes are applied to his book and it is truly a delight to read. The anecdotes ring true for the reader, and the concepts can be easily applied to the reader's experiences.
I highly recommend this book to those just getting started in probabilistic analysis as well as the experienced practitioner. It should also be required reading for the executive tasked with understanding the nuances of a project team's analysis.
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:
Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number, 2006-12-01
This book is an excellent read, and covers a technical subject in an interesting often humorous way. This book should be read by all decision analysts and decision making executives/managers, its obvious intended target, but likewise should be read by everyone who is at risk in the world -- that's everybody.
Mr. Leach has provided a wealth of insights here that I haven't seen anywhere else. As well, his writing is clear, to the point, and doesn't waste your time. I guarantee any reader will find something, probably many things, to apply and benefit from in the future. The book will help all, even quality decision makers, uncover some of their own biases and weaknesses.
In summary, I am an independent consulting decision analyst (engineering background), and I was greatly impressed.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
Insightful Rationale for Probabilistic Analysis and Potential Traps to Avoid, 2006-11-16
First, I'm biased because I've heard Mr. Leach speak (he's an excellent speaker) and I know him personally. He wrote the book because during his classes on decision analysis, participants consistently told him that they needed a book that they could give to their bosses that would explain on a high level what probabilistic analysis is all about and why it should be used. He has succeeded in meeting this objective - the book is very clear and is a good, interesting read. Mr. Leach has presented insights here that I've never seen expressed anywhere else and he concisely summarizes some very interesting research in a concise, readable way. I highly recommend this book for managers, executives, senior professionals, and decision analysts.
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