by Joseph H. Ellis
|
| List Price: | $29.95 |
| Amazon Price: | $19.77 & eligible for FREE Super Saver Shipping on orders over $25. |
| You Save: | $10.18 (34%) |
| Average Rating: |  |
| Lowest New Price: | $7.79 |
| Availablitiy: | Usually ships in 24 hours |
|
 |
|
Product Description
Today’s managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the market will turn until it’s too late. Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually wrong), and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry, business, or stocks. The author unveils his proven forecasting model—based on just a few key economic indicators—for identifying major directional changes in the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly. A simpler and more pragmatic approach to forecasting: user-friendly approach draws from empirical observation and first-hand practice rather than abstract economic theories Great timing: will appeal to the many business people and investors who got burned in the dotcom bust because they didn’t see the downturn coming Proven model developed by a bonafide Wall Street sage: Ellis is widely respected as a sage when it comes to analysing economic trends based on over three decades as a successful Wall Street analyst Novel, counterintuitive, accessible: goes against the grain of common wisdom about what really drives the economy and makes practical tools available to a wide audience of practitioners for the first time Appendix B in the book specifically relates the methodology in the main section of the book to possible application in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan
Customers who bought this item also bought
Average Customer Review:
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful:
 Excellent non-technical primer of stock market behavior, 2007-12-30
We all want to have as much data as possible when investing in the stock market, but we want to also spend our efforts efficiently. Joseph Ellis gives us an outstanding framework to understand how we can take common, public data and create ways to track the broad market.
Ellis places a very high emphasis on consumer spending, which is not a surprise given that he was Goldman Sachs' lead retail analyst for many years. Without going into significant detail, Ellis shows how a single economic indicator - personal consumption expenditures - plays a significant role in the overall economy and stock prices. Ellis spend the majority of the book outlining the relationships between different variables such as inflation, tax policy, and the S&P to show a different approach of how to analyze economic data.
I left with two key takeaways. First, using charts and year-over-year percentages helps simplify the analysis needed to analyze the stock market. Second, the often-quoted recession fears may be used in a totally different method to make your investing decisions.
Ellis writes in a very simple and readable style. There were a few sections with very technical prose that requires a second reading, but these are few and far between. It is clear that Ellis is extremely knowledgeable and passionate about this book. I think this is a great book for those who want to know more about the overall strategy of the stock market. Seasoned traders may not learn as much from the book, but Ellis' contrarian viewpoints at least allow one to look at market data in a different way.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 A good distillation of Economic numbers mumbo jumbo, 2007-12-26
Ellis makes his point clear from the beginning - Consumer spending drives the economy. Everything else follows.
- Unemployment's incremental change is effectively meaningless. Very true.
- Capital spending is a REACTION to consumer spending. For many industries, this is true. Some (Semiconductors, pipelines, etc) invest regardless of the market. But these are at the high end of the capital intensive spectrum.
There are other points that are useful. The main drawback is, "Does it work in practice?". The charts looked ok. But there was always 1-2 outliers. This can derail the best strategy.
A few R^2 provided by Ellis were weak. I think this sums up the whole exercise of Macroeconomic projection - it paints such broad brush strokes that its relavance to market buy/sell decisions is tenuous.
As Samuleson said, "The Stock Market has predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions". Ellis takes his own advice and methodologies with a grain of salt, and THAT is what makes this book worthwhile.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 Sometimes the obvious is worth repeating, 2007-12-24
Mr. Ellis' professional track-record is virtually universally recognized as unassailable. Consistency means everything in investing, and as America's economy of consumption seems prepared to power dive into terrain, Ellis' remarks will be seem either obvious or alarming. After all, the title tells us that it's 'common sense.' And it really is.
If you want drama, watch CNBC. If you want reason, read this book. The entire book is built on painfully obvious observations, so those seeking analytical rigor or "an edge" will be left wanting. But for patient people, this book offers an opportunity to avoid very predictable mistakes at every turn in the business cycle.
Ellis' advice to wake up and get over the "recession obsession" is particularly timely (again) at the end of 2007. As the markets reprice or just write-down the subprime meltdown by tens of billions at a whack, and as we watch consumer spending remain bewilderingly robust while year-over-year increases in credit card delinquency rates hit double digits and unit energy prices reach for records, the old-timers know *exactly* where this is going. So Ellis tells us: don't dwell on recession; accept that it will be recognized (late, by definition) and position yourself (now!) for the recovery.
Ellis' style is very readable, not always persuasive on the details (again, the lack of rigor) and mostly obvious. But if you didn't get it the first time around, you need to buy this book. Finally, the companion website -- which is free -- will be of interest to (and a timesaver for) many armchair investors.
1 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
Take bashing by the theorists wth a grain of salt, 2007-07-22
Another reviewer remarked that this book did not pass the Statistics 101 test. It is true that Ellis provides no supporting data for his ideas.
However, in some of my own work I did find considerable support for one important aspect of the Ellis approach: his suggestion that readers ignore quarterly or monthly percent changes and focus instead on year over year changes.
I, too, look at data year over year. I did not work with the exact same data sets Ellis discusses, but among the sets I did use, I noticed that multi-factor models of stock, bond and commodity returns against economic series showed t-scores below 1.00 when the variables were expressed as monthly returns. The theorists who bash Ellis here know that anything below 2.00 should be deemed suspect. But when, I re-cast the same sets of variables on a year-to-year basis, the t-scores jumped above 2.00, in fact, most were above 5.00 and some were above 10.00. That, or course, doesn't "prove" things (correlation vs. causation, curve fitting, yada yada yada). But it does add support to Ellis' claim that going year-to-year, which removes a lot of noise, can be very helpful.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
It is not that simple, 2007-07-20
Don't get me wrong, the book has its merits.
It cuts through hundreds of economic indicators to select a few that make economic sense, telling a convincing story (but oversimplified). It will help mostly people with some market experience but lacking enough flying hours in macroeconomic (big-picture) thinking.
Pros :
1 - Acessible to people without an advanced degree, seeking a non-overly-technical introduction to both macroeconomics and its relation to stock market over time.
2 - Explain everything in a intuitive way
3 - Clearly tells his perspective of "how" and "why" things happen in economics, however some of the causalities he writes in the book may not be a consensus among economists or professional analysts.
Cons :
1 - Oversimplifies Inflation, foreign trade, budget deficits, the role of politics and expectations, global economics
2 - Overstates the importance of "charting" and lacks even the most basic "statistics 101" test.
3 - Macroeconomic history is a lot more complex than this book tries to show, with different monetary policy periods (keynesians in 60s and 70s - monetarists in 80s), different fiscal policies ("anomalies" in the book), productivity growth, shocks, demographics, wars, etc.
How stock market reacts to economic changes is also not that simple and may confuse even smart (but naive) guys who may think they understood a lot of macro-thinking after reading this book..
Bottom line : Book does not add too much to those already in the field. It's a very good introduction to an average investor seeking more macroeconomic knowledge (big-picture investing), but be *very careful* with oversimplification of economic history, hidden unstable relations between variables and not-that-simple theoretical subjects;
Price is accurate as of the date/time indicated. Prices and product availability are subject to change. Any price displayed on the Amazon website at the time of purchase will govern the sale of this product.
|
Store Categories
|