by Russell Napier
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Product Description
This is a good time to look at the financial bear. How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, Russell Napier sets to answers these questions by analysing every article in the Wall Street Journal of either side of the market bottom. In these 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging. By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best financial provisions for the future.
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Average Customer Review:
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful:
 All about the bear markets, 2008-06-08
This book is rare in that it examines the four greatest bear market bottoms that would have made you the most money if you would have entered them at the right time, instead of the endless books out that show how to buy the hottest stocks in a perpetual bull market. What I like about this book is that the author stays away from his own opinions and simply shows the facts by examining the Wall Street Journal articles during each of these periods, August 1921, July 1932, June 1949, and August 1982. These were the actual bottoms when the market finally began to reverse. You will surprising see that unlike common Wall Street myths the bottom is not when things are the worse and everyone has a negative outlook, actually the WSJ article show that there was hope of a turn around, volume had dried up, P/E ratios were obviously absurdly low, and car sales were beginning to pick up. You will do very well to buy and read this book and add its information to your arsenal of trading and investing. While most of us sit out bear markets to keep our gains it is very important to know when to buy back in for the next up leg, this book can help you do just that.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful:
 Must read for anybody interested in investing, 2008-05-26
This is an excellent book on the history of stock market in U.S.
I remember somebody said something like this:
If you want to know the future you need know the history very well.
And somebody else says: History does not repeat itself, it rhymes.
This books also provides a good list of other investing books. I bought some other good books referenced by this book.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
Another take on bubbles, 2008-05-23
Another classic of this type is "Manias Panics and Crashes".
This one is specific to the four big Bear markets of the last century. The author goes through each one as an example. He identifies each stage and has clippings from the markets on peoples sentiment. Shows pricings and looks for what was the best indicator at the bottom. There is no hype, predictions, or false systems in this book. It's more presenting information and presenting patterns that occured.
All the bears follow similar patterns where there is froth, leverage, money sloshing around and everything is priced up a bit. Then some triggering event happens and people either re-evaluate or are forced to change their minds on valuations. Prices drop until they hit a bottom. Things uptrend for a while even though the news is still bad.... The author goes over each bear and how it's the same and how it's different.
Until reading this book, I did not understand or even think about using commodity prices as a leading indicator. Did not know that the stock market turned up before the economy did. Did not know that the great depression involved multiple stages, an international banking crisis, and a late move to gold.
After reading this book, now when I see someone on the TV saying that "They've never seen anything like this before" about LTCM, Bear Strerns, or the price of oil or gold... I have a better perspective. When someone tells me that "the market has definately found bottom" or "Can't go down from here"... I kind of chuckle now.
I do know that when people say "This is a great time to buy stocks..." they often don't know what they're talking about, or they're making it up.
If the credit crisis worsens this year, this summer or the next may be the best buying opportunity in the US stock market in the last 30 years. Hopefully what I've read will be some help. Every downturn is different, and Banks/Fed/Investors act differently each time based on past exp and history... It may be that we've already hit bottom... It may be that nothing in this book will call the next bottom... Only time will tell.
Many won't read this book because it doesn't say "Get RICH QUICK" on the front... LOL
4 of 6 people found the following review helpful:
Excellent read, 2007-05-14
For every one even remotely concerned or interested in stock market, this book is a must read. It is a very well researched and very well written book with indepth coverage of important events happening around the bottoms as well as the tops in the market. It is difficult to write such an interesting book on rather complex subject like this.
5 of 6 people found the following review helpful:
for every investor, 2007-04-06
This book reviews the history of 4 bear markets in the US. We will eventually see another one so you might be able to learn from history. It's mostly an easy read but there were some sections that became a little textbook like. This and Bull by Maggie Mahar will teach you plenty and hopdfully save you bundles.
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