The size and dynamic effect of aggregate-demand and aggregate-supply disturbances in expansionary and contractionary regimes [An article from: Journal of Macroeconomics]

by P.A. Shively

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This digital document is a journal article from Journal of Macroeconomics, published by Elsevier in 2004. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

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This paper examines the existence, size and dynamic effect of temporary aggregate-demand disturbances and permanent aggregate-supply disturbances to economic output in expansionary and contractionary regimes. It estimates a structural, bivariate threshold model which exploits the joint behavior of output and unemployment. This model finds that aggregate-demand (aggregate-supply) disturbances dominate output fluctuations in the contractionary (expansionary) regime. This is consistent with macroeconomic models with an aggregate-supply ceiling, credit rationing, or a convex aggregate-supply curve. It implies that policymakers should minimize the variance of aggregate-demand disturbances and maximize the level of aggregate supply.

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