Trading activity and price reversals in futures markets [An article from: Journal of Banking and Finance]

by C. Wang, M. Yu

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This digital document is a journal article from Journal of Banking and Finance, published by Elsevier in 2004. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
We use the standard contrarian portfolio approach to examine short-horizon return predictability in 24 US futures markets. We find strong evidence of weekly return reversals, similar to the findings from equity market studies. When interacting between past returns and lagged changes in trading activity (volume and/or open interest), we find that the profits to contrarian portfolio strategies are, on average, positively associated with lagged changes in trading volume, but negatively related to lagged changes in open interest. We also show that futures return predictability is more pronounced if interacting between past returns and lagged changes in both volume and open interest. Our results suggest that futures market overreaction exists, and both past prices and trading activity contain useful information about future market movements. These findings have implications for futures market efficiency and are useful for futures market participants, particularly commodity pool operators.

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